I am doomed. Utterly doomed.

[gerisullivan]

I just became a registered eBay user. It's my first time. Yes, of course I did so to bid on something. It's a very low-cost item. Yeah, right.

I am doomed.

I am not, however, going to increase my bid. Either I'll get it or I won't.

It's not even what I went looking for.

Of course it isn't.

Doomed. Doomed. Doomed.

I am suspiciously cheerful and confident for someone who has successfully avoided this fate for the last decade and more.

Film at 11. In the meantime, advice for an eBay neo would be very welcome. What mistakes should I endeavor to avoid? Well, beside the mistake of registering in the first place?

Comments

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

I've completed nearly 2,000 eBay auctions, and I have to say the best thing I ever did is use a sniping service. This let's me bid my max and walk away, but never get into a bidding war with someone who wants something as much as I do and has days and days to bid to price up.

No doubt there will be follow-on comments from people who say that sniping isn't fair. They are wrong.

K.

[casacorona.livejournal.com]

I don't like snipers, but I don't think it's unfair. My style is to be the first bidder, and put in my max bid. That gives me a good position to win the item, against the slow bidder, and against the snipers.

[mjlayman.livejournal.com]

I think sniping is fair, and since I bid my max to start with, sniping means someone else thinks it's worth more than I do, and they can have it.

[gerisullivan.livejournal.com]

That's pretty much my attitude. I can see a timing advantage in sniping -- it gives people less time to consider whether they're willing to go higher on their own bids (or to bid at all). I'm amused that sniping services has sprung up. Not surprised, heck, I'm even pleased that folks have seen the market opportunity there and are maximizing on it.

[sethb.livejournal.com]

I think sniping is perfectly fair, but doesn't get you anything.

If I'm willing to pay $100 and bid $100 early, and you snipe with a $125 limit, you'll get it for $101 (or $102.50, whatever the increment is) just as if you'd bid $125 early. If you snipe with a $99 limit, you won't get it, just as if you'd bid $99 early.

The only time sniping can help you is if you bid $125 early and I didn't bid my honest maximum, so I go up to $130, which I wouldn't have had time to do if you'd sniped.

What other benefit do you see from sniping?

Sniping in eBay

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

I thought this way for years. But it's wrong. It's not about the math, it's about the psychology.

People don't bid their maximum price; they bid a price they think is reasonable, based in part on the current bid. That is, the current bid sets a context by which they value the item. Even seasoned eBay bidders do this; they forget to bid their maximum price, and bid some reasonable amount over the current high bid. (I've seen K do it, recently.)

So by not bidding, what you're doing is keeping the current bid low. This means that others will bid less than they otherwise would. And you'll get the item for less in the end.

I know, I know. It's rediculous. It makes no sense. It's not logical. But it happens, again and again and again. Ever since K started using a sniping service, she's winning more bids for less money. It works.

B

Re: Sniping in eBay

[gerisullivan.livejournal.com]

Thanks for explaining what you've observed, Bruce. It's a very timely reminder that my auction results don't depend just on my own behavior, but by the behavior of any other bidders as well.

Re: Sniping in eBay

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

"It's a very timely reminder that my auction results don't depend just on my own behavior, but by the behavior of any other bidders as well."

Even weirder, you're auction behavior depends on the behavior of other bidders, too.

B

Re: Sniping in eBay

[gerisullivan.livejournal.com]

I'm aware of some of the ways other bidders affect my own behavior; I'll be interested to see if I come to recognize additional ways as I continue gaining experience both on eBay and in live auctions (where I have more experience than I do on eBay, but still not a lot).

Re: Sniping in eBay

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

Do you want a list of ways your bidding won't be rational, ever?

http://www.healthbolt.net/2007/02/14/26-reasons-what-you-think-is-right-is-wrong/

B

Re: Sniping in eBay

[gerisullivan.livejournal.com]

Bookmarked.

Thank you for that, too!

I'm familiar with many of these thanks to my communication studies of oh-so-long-ago, and some of the risk-related ones through reading your own very fine works. But there were a few I didn't know/remember, and having the list all in one place is useful. As is the "Cognitive Hazard" caution sign!

[bohemiancoast.livejournal.com]

Sniping's part of the game, but I wish eBay had a feature that automatically extended auctions for a minute after the last bid. That would kill sniping stone dead, and improve outcomes for sellers -- of course, at the expense of knowing exactly when your auction would end.

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

Yes, or ten minutes.

That would solve the problem, and result in higher final prices.

B

[gerisullivan.livejournal.com]

Some short period of time like a minute, 5, or 10 would also more closely resemble in-person auctions. At the ones I've been to, bidding continues as long as bids are coming in.

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

Right.

Remote auctions are more likely to be fixed-end-time systems, though.

B